Will Gas Prices Finally Drop Below $4 Before 2027? Here's What the Experts Say

Good news for drivers: relief could be on the way before the year ends.

But don't pop the champagne yet.

Where prices stand today

The national average is $4.33 a gallon, more than $1 higher than a year ago.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) says September's average was $4.35, pushed up by pricier crude oil and rising refining margins.

How we got here

The Iran war is the main reason for the jump.

The conflict disrupted oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for global energy supplies.

Here's how prices have moved this year:

• Before the war began on Feb. 28, regular gas averaged $2.98 a gallon.
• Prices peaked at $4.56 in May.
• They fell below $4 in June after a tentative U.S.-Iran deal to reopen the strait.
• The relief didn't last, and prices climbed again.

What the EIA expects

In its October forecast, the EIA expects prices to ease gradually, with the national average dipping below $4 in December.

Two things are behind that outlook:

• Refineries ramping back up after seasonal maintenance.
• Lower winter demand, which helps inventories rebuild.

The forecast also assumes Middle East production and exports will slowly rise as alternative shipping routes bring more oil to market.

The longer view is brighter.

The EIA sees gasoline averaging just under $3.60 a gallon in 2027.

Why relief may be slow

The EIA expects U.S. gasoline inventories to stay tight, keeping refining margins higher than usual into early 2027.

Even when wholesale prices fall, it takes time for the savings to reach the pump, where taxes and distribution costs also play a part.

The agency itself warns that its forecast carries "above-average uncertainty."

What other experts say

Analysts are less optimistic than the EIA.

Tom Kloza of Gulf Oil estimates the national average will land around $4.11 at the end of December.

He expects prices to stay above $4 through the midterms, though he wouldn't be surprised to see them on either side of $4 by year's end.

Kloza adds that gas prices usually hit their seasonal lows between mid-December and the end of January.

GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan declined to make a year-end call, citing tensions involving the U.S. and Iran as well as Ukraine and Russia.

He says any escalation could push prices up and any de-escalation could pull them down.

Where you live matters

Not every driver will see the same drop.

• Areas supplied by Gulf Coast refineries may see the biggest relief.
• Western states are likely to stay pricier.

The bottom line

Some relief in December is possible, but a national average below $4 is not guaranteed.

Much depends on how the geopolitical situation unfolds.

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